The prevailing sentiment on Thursday’s by-election is that if Kathleen Wynne can steal one from the Tories, this would be a major win for her and a major rebuke of Patrick Brown’s nascent leadership of the Ontario PCs.  However, the reverse is also true. Rather than downplay expectations for the upcoming by-election, Kathleen Wynne is pulling out all the stops to pull off a major win.  It shows her cut-throat political instincts are alive and well. If Patrick Brown holds on to this seat, it must be considered as major a victory for his leadership and a blow to Kathleen Wynne.

There are a few reasons for this:

1. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the guy that has sworn off the hyper partisanship of his predecessor, has instead made the decision that he will campaign for Wynne at a rally in the riding.  It’s pretty unprecedented for a sitting Prime Minister to campaign for a minuscule provincial by-election.  It’s hard to say what’s in it for him, other than a few more selfies to aggrandize his ego.
2. Whitby-Oshawa and surrounding area went red during the 2015 Federal election, so votes are fluid.
3. Whitby-Oshawa is the sort of suburban riding that the Liberals won in droves during the 2014 provincial election, and it’s argued that Christine Elliott was able to hold on to that seat due to her personal popularity.
4. Both the Liberals and the PCs have credible local candidates in the race, and the NDP have sunk to new lows in the riding.  This is the sort of left side collapse that benefits Liberals.

That said, the Tories under Patrick Brown are clearly rebuilding their organization.  With a heavy emphasis on outreach and an abandonment of polarizing policies, Brown’s Tories are looking less and less like the party of the past.  It’s going to be hard to quantify this shift in its early stages given that most people probably haven’t noticed this tactical repositioning.  Nevertheless, it is apparent.

One of the leading issues for the Tories is to oppose the ‘fire sale’ of Hydro One.  A quick glance over at durhamregion.com this morning sees that this is what the NDP have plastered all over that online news site.  That one of the major policy flash points is identical between the NDP and the Tories is a remarkable change in itself.  So we cannot easily conclude that a collapsing NDP vote is a net benefit to the Liberals.  It seems equally possible that the Tories have tried to take their ground too.

With the Liberals bringing in the big guns, and the Tories trying to consolidate the opposition to the government, it makes Thursday’s by-election a big win for the winner and a major defeat for the loser.  Weather may play a factor, but this won’t stop Liberals and Tories playing to win.