After electoral defeat last week at the polls for Toronto’s mayoralty, Doug Ford is pondering a run for the provincial PC leadership. He should get into the race. I say that not because I want him to be leader, as I am not taking sides in this leadership. I say it because the Fords are a rare commodity in politics. They have a remarkable following that is loyal.
After all, despite all the Ford family controversies and intense media scrutiny, and despite being thrown into the election at the very last minute, Doug Ford managed to muster an impressive showing at the polls last Monday. While Ford trailed Mayor-Elect John Tory by about 6 percentage points at the polls, in provincial politics with a first-past-the-post electoral system, what matters most is territories won. Of Toronto’s 44 wards, Tory won 21 of those wards and Ford won 20 of them, while Olivia Chow won the remaining 3. Pollsters and pundits were saying that he could win at most two wards, and the fact that he won 20 was unexpected to say the least. In other words, the ward results matter just as much in the land of winning seats in a provincial election, and Ford could make the Tories competitive in more Toronto seats than at any time since 1995. Provincial Tories across the province would find some allure to that idea, since even Tories outside Toronto concede that victory in a provincial election cannot be secured without winning seats in Toronto and the GTA.
While people will certainly start making electoral calculations, one must consider the main reason why Doug Ford in this leadership may be the spark that’s needed. Put simply, every good story needs an antagonist, and as far as antagonists go, none could be better than a Ford. Add to the story line that the antagonist could actually win, and the whole story becomes more gripping. A more gripping story would draw more interest from the media and the voting public than it would otherwise, even before a single PC membership is sold to a member of Ford Nation. As well, the Tory leadership will not benefit from the hoopla of a delegated convention, so creating more excitement throughout will make the survivor results show all the more compelling.
For the protagonists, which pretty well describes most of the other candidates who, by and large, have been running a campaign of being nice to each other and who appear to be championing a consensus on the main issues (of course differences exist, but they are subtle in the grand scheme of things), the nature of their campaigns would change too. Their campaigns would automatically try to seize the position of being the candidate most capable of beating Ford, and that’s how they would begin to campaign and sell memberships. It’s easier to sell a membership to people who are equally opposed to your opponent as you are, so membership sales will rise for the protagonists as well. And, because of the nature of having multiple protagonists and one antagonist in the story, the likely result would mean that some current candidates will drop out and take a side. Thus, when Christina Blizzard writes about the potential for a seismic shift in the leadership race, this is why.
This is especially true for the 4 sitting caucus members who are running for leader. Caucus will undoubtedly be talking about the potential of Ford’s leadership and will undoubtedly talk about it negatively. Most of caucus will prefer a leader who has a seat in the legislature. Most of caucus will want somebody who understands the caucus dynamic, which should not be minimized as unimportant, to lead them. Most of caucus will view Doug Ford as a polarizing figure, and for a party that has just gone through a polarizing election, the majority aren’t likely to view Ford’s leadership positively. All of this thickens the plot and makes the story line that much more interesting.
Some of the organizers in the current contestants camps don’t think Ford’s leadership will amount to much, and maybe it won’t, but you cannot underestimate him. First of all, more people attend Ford Fests than are members of Toronto riding associations. Because Toronto riding associations will be below average in terms of memberships, it isn’t a stretch for Ford Nation to sweep 75% of the Toronto eligible votes. That alone would give Ford 1/6th of eligible points that are allocated by riding, and make him a front runner. Ford contends that his reach is even greater in the GTA, although Tory memberships are as well, and so Ford Nation will get GTA votes as well. And, the anti-elitist message that the Fords love to trumpet will play well in the rural areas where Tory memberships are high. The question is whether the message that has wide appeal will trump the messenger who may not. Regardless, Doug Ford will get votes everywhere, and as soon as that happens, he will be the front runner in this race.
Of course, there are a number of challenges that Doug Ford would face. It is highly unlikely for any candidate to get a first ballot win in this election, so courting second ballot support will mean building relationships with the other contestants. Some of this is possible for front runners due to their ability to offer other contestants some prominent roles. However, he does have to be nice to them, and he does need to concede that any one of them could do a good job running the party. It’s OK to think you’re the best, but the me or them attitude will not serve him well in a ranked ballot election. Running a party, especially the Ontario PCs, is a different beast than being a part of a two-man show at Toronto’s city hall. The membership and caucus relations need to be carefully thought through. Running a leadership race helps when you have a personal brand, but you do require across-the-province organization, and 5 leadership campaigns have been working on this for awhile, and some even before the June 12th election. There are still some capable people currently unaligned, but the pickings are slim. Add to all of this the fact that ordinary Ontarians, the very variety that the Ontario PCs need in order to win in 2018, are very repulsed by the Fords that they would never vote for one in a general election is a real concern. How Doug Ford matures as a political force, without losing the edge that attracts so many to the Fords, needs to be carefully managed. And, last but not least, Doug Ford will be subject to intense opposition by the Working Families Coalition. Can he rise through the muck that will be slung? Is he personally prepared to fight against it? These are big questions he’ll have to think about as he positions himself for a provincial run.
For what it’s worth, Doug Ford’s popularity appears to be primarily with men, lower income, and less educated voters. Contrary to what some believe, this is the typical voter profile of today’s PCs. Where Doug does better than the PCs is with urban and younger voters. Ford is a populist firebrand and devout fiscal conservative who knows how to run a business. If you think about the electoral coalition of Mike Harris in 1995, Doug Ford probably comes closest to being able to re-achieve it. However, keen readers of my blog will note that I have been calling for a smarter, more practical message and party. This may not jive with Doug Ford’s persona to date. That doesn’t stop me from wanting Ford in this race. Quite the contrary. I’m intrigued at the prospect.
N.B. I am not involved in any of the 2015 PC leadership campaigns and have not endorsed either of the candidates. I wish all my friends running for the PC leadership the very best in their campaigns.